Life of an average joe

These essays cover a tour in Afghanistan for the first seventeen letters home. For an overview of that tour, and thoughts on Iraq, essays #1, #2 and #17 should suffice. Staring with the eighteenth letter, I begin to recount -- hopefully in five hundred words -- some daily aspects of life in Mexico with the Peace Corps.



Monday, September 16, 2013

Letter #85: Ethics, the Capital Markets, and Retro-innovation

This is yet another political letter home.  This letter discusses a  mundane topic: banking as a public utility.  Traditional banking services arguably act like utilities in that they are ‘natural’ monopolies, like municipal water companies or local electric utilities.  That is to say: their unhindered interest in providing these services is to maximize economies of scale to make themselves a ‘market of one’ reaching out to the limits of a self-contained service area. 

In earlier times, with the prevalence of community banks, these areas were most often cities or towns. 
As communications made the world a village, states and regions became that perimeter of self-containment.  Finally, globalism and the inter-net turned much of the world into a rumpus room. Big banks got even bigger, spanning continents and occasionally spreading financial incontinence.

Speculative ‘hot-money’ currency trades and, later, derivatives, questionable value propositions and corrupted ‘gain-on-sale’ accounting fueled these dislocations. 
The derivatives were particularly hazardous because they frequently were not hedges but the means by which an institution could squeeze a few basis points (i.e., per-cents of a per-cent; e.g., one basis point of $100 being a penny) out of an efficient market through algorithms

In the late 1990s, after wearing down regulations argued to be archaic, the U.S. Congress finally knocked out the last of the bank laws legislated sixty-six years before. 
The Bank Act of 1933 (37 pages long and known as ‘Glass-Steagall’, to honour its Congressional sponsors, Senator Carter Glass, D-VA, and Representative Henry Steagall, D-AL) had split the investment banks from the commercial banks for a very good reason. 

Investment banking tended to bet money while traditional banking (think Bailey Home Loan from
It’s a Wonderful Life) tended to preserve it, through savings accounts, and intermediate it. In other words, in earlier times, when investment banks underwrote securities, they often assumed the ‘market risk’ of the stock or bond issue.  That is to say: the institution effectively purchased all of the securities, for a cheaper price than expected in the market, directly from the company raising money through the re-sale of stocks or bonds.  These investment banks then re-sold those securities to the larger capital market at the anticipated price. 

Sometimes, the pricing did not work out, leading to losses by the investment bank.  Though it is not often assumed anymore, this underwriting risk of a securities offering presents us with an instructive example of proprietary trading.  Most securities trading is similar to traditional banking: brokers intermediate funds between people selling securities and others buying them with a few basis points skimmed (i.e., the bid-ask spread) by the broker-dealer for handling fees.

When, however, the institution represents one side of the trade without offsetting it in a symmetrical transaction (i.e., funds are not intermediated, as they were not in a bond underwriting) in which an institution expends some of its ‘capital’ on a trade in the capital markets, that bank or broker is making a bet by assuming the risk inherent in its particular side of the transaction. 

These bets, more like educated guesses most of the time, have higher profit margins than the less glamorous, more prudent service of intermediation.  Yet these bets entail higher risks because losses can burn through the institutional capital very quickly.  Since most brokers and banks make the bulk of their business from intermediation, they tend to lend out all but a small amount of funds taken in as capital and deposits (i.e., as a safety margin).

So there is little capital left to burn through before the ship is sunk.  These one-sided 'proprietary' banking transactions, these bets, explained events like cornered gold markets and the crashes that accompanied them in the 150 years before the Great Depression.  The consequences would ripple or metastasize through the financial system since intermediation, in mature markets, meant that almost everybody had a piece of the action by re-lending out funds received.

(Nowadays, the
 securitization of risks via sales of existing portfolios of loans and computer-driven trading accelerates this metastasis.) Such betting, intuitively, ought not to involve others’ money, especially without their knowledge and consent.  Thus, for many years, these activities involved partnerships in which people bet their own money or funds entrusted by people whom they knew and who understood the risks involved

For the rest of us, the only loans from the banks were often secured; that is, there were fixed assets pledged as collateral (i.e., the house in a mortgage). If the borrower reneged on his commitment to repay the loan, the bank would re-possess the collateral for sale to generate the proceeds to repay much or all of the debt still to be re-paid.

Investment banks often had to pledge securities, usually issued by well-respected companies (i.e., traded frequently and indicative of underlying value), as collateral with a significant haircut (a 20-50% discount from the market price on the date of the pledging). If collateral values dropped sufficiently, the investment banking / trading partnership or individual investor in the 1920s had to put up more collateral. 

If there were a long and proven history of cash-flows able to absorb short-term borrowings for working capital, some large corporate borrowers would need to pledge collateral, as valued net of its 'hair-cut', at less than the full amount of the borrowing (i.e., all the way down to no collateral for 'unsecured'
loans). 
This traditional, lower-risk financial intermediation, based on a skinny-income business model, made banks natural utilities.  

That is, the ideal supplier would be one giant generic bank for a market that minimized non-intermediation expenses relative to the customer-base and income generation. But, like any monopoly, the bank would then elevate prices (interest rates on loans) to its market to maximize profits for its owners (be they partners or shareholders).  Like any ‘monopsony’ (i.e., one purchaser, the bank taking deposits, versus a splintered array of sellers, average-Joes with their pay-checks, etc.), the bank could get away with paying little or no interest on people’s savings. 
As a natural monopoly fulfilling a vital function in the larger economy, banks came to be viewed, and, under the provisions of the Banking Act of 1933, regulated as public utilities. Like any utility – and particularly one that took on debts to produce more debt (as opposed to taking on debt to provide water or electricity) – banks required a sufficient capital base (i.e., money sitting in the vault) to withstand occasional shocks to the system. 

Remember the scene in It’s a Wonderful Life when George Bailey pulled the last dollar out of his pocket to pay off a depositor withdrawing money and, in doing so, dissuaded others from withdrawing funds?  The newlyweds, George and Mary, forfeited their honeymoon to save his bank and their town. 
That was a classic bank run since, pre-New Deal, banks would lend out almost every dollar they got to earn interest, thus leaving them unable to honor more than a modest spike in withdrawals. 

While Frank Capra’s family film may seem innocently simple to us today, the mechanics were not all that different in 2008, except for the level of sophistry flowing around the market and the business news circles to justify a similar impulse toward speculation heedless of the longer term fall-out.  So the New Deal, under a lot of heat these days, brought in two new key measures and reinforced another to stop the three banes of banking and investment banking:
  • a tendency of traditional banks to start taking speculative positions in a search for more income after a market had been fully exploited – a brand extension strategy that seems logical but entails a discrete change in the risk profile from that of a pure monopoly to a book-maker;
  • a run on the bank when depositors lose confidence in the bank and want to get their money out before others do, lest there be none left for them (i.e., the slower fool theory); as well as,
  • abusive pricing or speculative practices, in lending or in attracting deposits, of a natural monopoly if left unchecked.
As an inherently high-risk proposition, rational capital markets professionals assumed that investment (or merchant) banking activities would be best left to smaller groups of partners investing what they could afford to lose or those funds entrusted to them by others of means and similar risk appetites

That is to say: a market where people knew they were preserving most of their assets and betting what money they could manage without.  The only market related risk among these partnerships was the hazard of perpetrating frauds on unsuspecting investors.  So, what did the New Deal do to try to prevent a repeat of the 1930s?

While I am not familiar with the laws and have forgotten the alphabet soup of regulations from the Federal Reserve, the régime built on traditional usury laws (to prevent over-charging on interest levied against borrowers) with three basic pillars, one dependent upon the other:
  • splitting investment banking from traditional financial intermediation;
  • capping rates paid to depositors; and,
  • insuring people’s deposits. 
What the New Deal did, I believe, is exercise regulatory power in the manner it should be applied: by establishing universal and perceptible ground-rules in a market, leaving enforcement latitude to the Central BankThe beauty of the simplicity of the New Deal banking régime was that its basic pillars reinforced each other. 

The bettors kept betting, but through partnerships meant to remain small enough not to bring down an entire system when they failed, as many would over the normal course of time and betting.  The Federal Reserve either received the power or was encouraged to assume the power of direct intervention to maintain the orderly function of the capital markets, when these partnerships got to be big enough to disrupt the markets, as they did by the 1950s.
Through Glass-Steagall, banks became the public utilities they were all along by virtue of being natural monopolies. Like such monopolies, the public interest was served by enumerating clear and universal pricing limits (like those imposed on the water company for pricing its services). 

Finally, the base of the utility (i.e., people’s savings and deposits) was insured to forestall bank runs; that is, people could trust the public utility. This system worked very well.  Depositor insurance was extended to people with savings invested through broker-dealers. 

This interview with Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), backs up an unmistakable track-record of good regulation done right.  To be sure, there was more than one exception to the success of Glass-Steagall, a lot more.  Yet, by drilling down in cases as diverse as Hutton, Continental-Illinois, Barings, Long-term Capital, Drexel and the rest, one will see a variant of one of two reasons underlying these spectacular collapses:
  • taking the eye off the ball and over-leveraging money relative to risk assumed; or,
  • actions that betrayed or lost the confidence of the market.
That is to say: good rules make markets work better but can not prevent occasions of stupidity or malfeasance.
In fact, in the majority of these collapses, the very depositor insurance often gave the struggling bank a deep and stable deposit base, thanks to the New Deal programs, to buy enough time for them to muddle through (Mellon) or merge with somebody else (Hutton). 

In those cases where this was not the case – Barings, Continental-Illinois, Long-term Capital – regulators could intervene and proceed with an orderly recapitalization (Continental) or liquidation of a partnership (Barings and Long-term Capital). In the case of Long-term Capital, the Federal Reserve used its discretion artfully, just as it failed to do in 2008.

After thirty years of work-arounds, loop-hole arbitrage and gradual erosion, Glass-Steagall finally fell.  The rationale was not greed but efficient capital markets.  The big reason I heard back then for repealing Glass-Steagall was that the obsolete structure was an economic friction and disadvantage for U.S. money-center banks in the now supra-nationalized global banking market. 

The argument basically stated that money was a form of capital and for capital to create wealth, it had to be mobilized. In the information age, with "business @ the speed of thought”, the higher the mobility (or velocity) of money, the more projects or purchases it could finance and the more growth enjoyed by everyone.  At least, that's how I think the argument proceeded: the swirling dollar becoming a whirling dervish.

The division of banks and investment banks decreased the hallowed free-flow of this capital and, therefore, diminished the profitability for which financial institutions thirsted in an era of a perceived market discipline of grow-or-dieAs long as Glass-Steagall remained in place, depositors’ insurance need not be a visible moral hazard because banks tended to be limited to traditional lending. 

True, that frame-work did not prevent stupidity but it had largely assuaged cupidity, as spectacular exceptions  like The Bank of New England 
– proved the rule.  Since depositors’ insurance was, by the 1990s, as American as apple-pie, its repeal would almost certainly never occur.  As long as Glass-Steagall remained in place, it did not need to go anywhere.  The problem became one of identity.

Over time, senior executives (at least a large enough number) of the traditional banks saw themselves less as stewards of a public utility and more the captains of industry bent on a profit that would reward them handsomely in bonuses and symphony chairmanships. Investment banks, in their turn, looked ravenously at the deep pools of money (i.e., capital and deposits) languishing on banks' balance sheets. 

That damn Glass-Steagall stood in the way.  The thinking went something like this: look at all of that dormant capital those fat sluggish banks are sitting on!  Boy, if we could only get at that pot of money. 
That ‘archaic’ New Deal law slowed the flow of money and, therefore, profits, jeopardizing New York’s pre-eminence of the global financial hub (or so the argument went). 

Besides, with the on-rush of globalism ushered in by the E.U. and N.A.F.T.A., American banks were at a ‘systemic disadvantage' to European and Japanese banks that brooked no such 'petty' distinctions.  (Now let us take a generational view of what happened to European and Japanese banking.  Neither system has fully recovered from a leveraged betting binge.)

So, good-bye Glass-Steagall BUT NOT depositor insurance with the Gramm, Leach Bliley Act of 1999.  The two together created the moral hazard that caused the meltdown within a few years.  Here’s why the dynamic duo of free-wheeling financial betting and depositors' insurance was dynamite.
  1. As long as Glass-Steagall remained in place, insured deposits tended to be passive, adding a 'soft' layer to the utilities’ capital base. 
  2. If Glass-Steagall were repealed along with depositors’ insurance, at least in theory, bankers would have to look over their shoulders, lest their excesses in betting would precipitate runs on the banks they mismanaged.
  3. Lastly, the repeal of Glass Steagall and the retention of depositors’ insurance allowed the bettors to mobilize, or leverage, all that ‘dormant’ capital through proprietary trading (i.e., betting) and corporate finance to earn higher margins than had been realized by antiquated banking practices.
This 'reform' and 'modernization' enabled financial speculators to bet with other people’s money, knowing that almost all, if not all, of the other people would get completely bailed out by depositors’ insurance. To be sure, at the time as an international banker, I felt ill-at-ease with the undoing of this New Deal pillar of sound finance.

My mentality was more that of the lazy mind of the middle-manager: "if it ain't broke, don’t fix it."  Yet, whenever I questioned the wisdom of this ‘reform’, I endured a torrent of verbal abuse for being a reactionary idiot. Upon conceding my double-digit I.Q. and pressing on for explanations, none that really seemed coherent came along. It all sounded like so much peer pressure to smoke cigarettes at sixteen. 
Confessing to being a curmudgeon before my time did not work, either.  When it came to questioning the economics and mechanics of derivatives trades, particularly credit derivatives, I will 'not even go there' when it comes to the words that came bouncing back to me at times.  So, like Winston Smith in 1984, I swallowed hard on the fake gin, suppressed a tear of surrender and went along with the true-speak.

Fast-forward to the night before the 2008 election, when I looked up the respective stands on the financial crisis of Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Barack Obama (D-IL).  By then, I was out of banking and on tour in Iraq for the State Department. 
In truth, I had already decided on Senator McCain because he had been a war-hero but, impressed with the first African-American presidential candidate, I made one last due-diligence check. 

Senator Obama’s ideas on the detestable bail-out of Wall Street seemed unclear and muddled to me; Senator McCain was much more in line with what I felt.  By then, I had accepted the fact that President Bush had had one day to react for the first banking bail-out; that is, he took the immediate course, the only one open to him to buy the time for more comprehensive reform.  Any president would have done what President Bush had done, though doing so was a regrettable necessity. 

But I was damned if another bail-out was going to happen because people had made other people’s money into an ingredient of intellectual tinker-toys (i.e., structured finance) yet would not face up to the consequences of the cultural malaise, if not corruption, pervasive within so many banks. What I recall as being the big argument for another bail-out was that Main Street needed to be protected from Wall Street’s mess. 

One way the money center banks had skimmed a few pennies, seemingly for free, was in overnight lending to smaller banks to balance out the books of the banking system on a daily basis. 
That vital utility of local banking would go away without the bail-out to preserve overnight lending, so the argument seemed to go.  That premise sounded tinny and rather false to me. 

In fact, since the largest wire-transfer systems were under, or easily placed under, the control of the Federal Reserve, there was no reason why the Federal Reserve could not take that money, proposed under T.A.R.P., to liquefy the overnight market and keep it functioning, under its direct auspices rather than pump fictitious greenbacks into flagging Banks. 

The big-bank theory (of bail-outs) could be shattered as the institutions filed for bankruptcy (under an express plan) and got to work on re-building the compromised public utility. 
During that Chapter-11 catharsis, the banks would disgorge their money drains (securities structuring and underwriting as well as proprietary trading) as well as spin their bad assets off into trusts so they would re-emerge as the utilities of the Glass-Steagall era

The Federal Reserve might need to guarantee bank capital for a while to absorb the accounting losses incurred with 'sunk' funds being securitized at 20-40
¢ on the dollar.  Such losses from spinning off squidgy assets would be book-keeping in nature, since the money financing them was already gone forever. That guarantee until organic recapitalization could occur, however, would not be nationalizing the banks in the sense of managing them.

The T.A.R.P. money would not go  as it eventually did  to the banks for purchasing assets or, as it turned out, to sit idly on the balance sheets matched by preferred stock, both of which created money out of thin air.  Investment banking and trading would be dead, but only for a short while until hedge funds would begin to see opportunities in the bundled baddies being mis-priced and new companies came to the market (savings banks?), etc.

In fact, Senator McCain’s thinking, informed by his ordeal during the savings and loan crisis of twenty years before, was far closer to a regulatory philosophy of ground rules in an open arena rather than trying to control people through rules-based behaviors. 
Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, ('Dodd-Frank' per the legislative sponsors) with its 848 pages, was D.o.A., a ready victim to human nature and frailty, not to mention the blah blah blah ad blauseam inherent in most contemporary legislation. 

Much of Dodd-Frank may make sense over time; let that be legislatively ingested incrementally.  But, as Blaise Pascal observed so long ago, men may be as weak as reeds (grass blown over by the wind) but men are thinking reeds... dammit. 
Regulation should empower oversight to be equally clever in reigning in those thinking reeds who are 'too clever by half'. 

After all, clear and explicit ground rules, enforced with latitude to respond to unique ‘next-war’ circumstances, enable limited and rational government. The
recent bill introduced by Senators Elizabeth Warren; Angus King, I-ME; and, John McCain
 answers that necessity of republicanism.  This tri-partisan trifecta is overdue and welcome.  

Bringing back Glass-Steagall will not be a panacea for human failings but it will lead to reasonable incentives and behaviors for a sector of the economy rightfully deemed as key public utility. 
And, no, Wall Street has not learned.  The hearings led by Senator Levin (D-MI) on the ‘whale-trade’ derivatives portfolio in London of J.P.Morgan of six months ago reminded me so much of the type of evasiveness I encountered from people who did not know, or refused to say, the answers to my questions as a risk manager, tedious as they were.  

Finally, I should have known the jig was up with the hope that bankers had shed their hubris when, in the preceding year, J.P.Morgan Chairman, Jamie Dimon, testified to a Congressional Committee that revoking Glass-Steagall had not precipitated key problems underlying the 2008 melt-down. Masterfully, Dimon was half-right, it was that revocation without a simultaneous end to deposit insurance – accelerated by corrupted micro-incentive structures – that did.


Thursday, September 5, 2013

Letter #84 to Friends and Familiares: the Proof may be in the Putin...

It is time to listen our country’s leadership and to inform our respective Representatives and Senators of what we – each one of us – really believe to be the appropriate course of action with respect to Syria.  My opinion is plain and remains unchanged, variously categorizing me as smart, stupid or simply self-involved.  http://nedmcdletters.blogspot.mx/2013/08/letter-83-thoughts-on-syria-case-for.html That is not the purpose of this note to my loved ones. 

The best note of skepticism I have come across is that of one politician whom I trust, though his politics differ sharply from mine. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dennis-j-kucinich/syria-war-questions_b_3870763.html  The arguments in favor are being presented capably by Secretary of State Kerry and Secretary of Defense Hagel. http://www.c-span.org/flvPop.aspx?id=10737441229  My interest lies not in those two but in General Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

This letter, too, is about Syria. But not about Syria herself. Rather, I want to discuss just why Russia is acting the way she is.  For days, I have scratched my head in puzzlement as to why Russia is being almost provocative in the face of terrible depredations, evidently attributable to the régime she supports categorically.  This afternoon, when I was composing my weekly letter to my compañeros in the engineering research center where I serve, I was thinking about a question several colleagues had posed to me as "their" norteamericano.

That question was why the U.S. government is not listening at all to the government of Vladimir Putin.  Admittedly, there is far more interest around me in why the National Security Agency is monitoring the various communications of Presidents Peña-Nieto and Rousseff, respectively.  (My response being because it is easier to spy than ‘google’, a dumb joke that wrests the requisite chuckles).  Nevertheless, as I tied together the Syria debate with technology transfer in Mexico (?¿?¿?), President Putin’s view came into focus.

A basic question – a serious question – about the Syria discourse remains unaddressed.  Specifically, the reasons I have heard about why President Putin is acting like a jerk are unconvincing.
  1. Vladimir likes to “poke America in the eye”.  This argument seems weak and does not get any stronger with the re-telling ad nauseam.  It is hard to believe that a man who has survived the rough-and-tumble politics of the U.S.S.R. and of Russia would allow his personal feelings to affect his judgement and behavior when the stakes are so high.  Poking in the eye is reserved for things like Mr Snowden but to risk a regional war or worse? No, I don’t think so.
  2. Russia needs a Mediterranean port for her navy to maintain her status as a world power.  This thinking, at least as far as the port is concerned, makes more sense.  Yet why did President Putin not offer a deal: “Hello, Joe, we will support your meddling in Syria if you guarantee that we retain the right to our base in beautiful downtown Tartous?
  3. Back in the U.S.S.R.  This sentiment tends to link onto the previous idea of naval access to the Mediterranean.  It argues that President Putin rues, misses and aims to restore the lost status of a super-power.  Nevertheless, setting out the great-power swap would play better into this fantasy as co-equals negotiating the fate of another bastard-child of the Sykes-Picot affair.
  4. Economics.  This argues that dueling pipelines through Turkey versus the Caucusus is driving this pariah status assumed by Russia.  Honestly, I know too little to address that question.  This trade-off could well be true but I wonder if it would rise to the level of great power confrontation.  Additionally, given the harrowing destruction of the one-time jewel of the region, it may be a very long while before any business runs through Syria, except for illegal arms, of course.
So, unconvinced by any of these reasons for the great bear’s growling obstinacy, I pondered – indulging myself in a fruitless exercise – about what I would be thinking if I were President Putin.  That I cannot do.  The cultures of Russia and the United States are so different as to make direct empathy impossible. The intricate nature of Russian politics and President Putin’s role in it make empathy sheer speculation; frankly, I would trust more my chances at playing darts without my coke-bottle glasses.

So, I went to a second line of thought. In looking at the Syrian dilemma, I asked myself, “Now, hot-shot, why do you think President Putin would be so stubborn in his support for an unseemly régime that likely has used poison gas on its people, especially as refugees swell in number and dwell in suffering?”  Then a thought crossed my mind.  It was one of those moments I flashed back in time, thirty-three years ago, when I was a senior in college.

It was Clark Mollenhoff’s class in journalism and contemporary political issues in the winter semester at Washington and Lee in early 1980.  It had been snowing one of those damp Blue Ridge snows that made Lexington, Virginia almost celestial in its small-town splendor.  But it made getting to class a soft-shoe in Hell.  So, I was late, already well on my way to getting the only hook ever administered by Mr Mollenhoff, a retired, if not retiring, investigative reporter for the Des Moines Register. 

Mr Mollenhoff was a kind man, not least for his grading students on a pass-fail basis: A = PASS; B = fail.  Yet I found a way to a precedent-setting ‘C’.  Leave it to me to prove myself so exceptional as to prove the Mollenhoff grading rule.  That day, the contemporary political theme was the then-recent invasion of Afghanistan by the U.S.S.R. along with the U.S. response to it (i.e., wheat embargo, Olympics boycott, etc.).  Back then, the widely discussed reasons for that invasion revolved around a desire for Soviet a deep-water port.
 
That seemed nutty to me, even then.  The idea of invading a land-locked country to wrest docking rights in Pakistan strained my wretched little mind into a migraine.  So far-fetched.  There were other things flitting through my mind that day: recent taking of hostages in Iran; the attack and take-over of the Mecca mosque by extremists; and, other reports of rising Islamic extremism.  The U.S.S.R. had a large population of Muslims. 
 
So, in class that day, I said that the U.S.S.R. attacked Afghanistan to send a message to its large, apparently restive Muslim minority: “Hey, if we are willing to take this flak in the United Nations and around the world by publicly invading this bozo country next door, imagine what we will do to you who are out of the public eye.  Sooo, quiet down…”  That idea was laughed out of the room because, well, I was well on my way to a hanging hook and the idea, admittedly, seemed outlandish.

Since then, I have found out that senior Soviet foreign policy leaders (supposedly in released Kremlin papers or interviews; I do not know which one, if either) have stated that the reason I had cited was one of, of course, several reasons, the simultaneity of which prompted the follow-trhough of an already-planned invasion.  The point I am making is that the Russians today, sans les Stans, have reason to be anxious with what happens in Syria.  So why would President of Russia be one petty Putin?
  • The Russian sphere of influence most definitely still extends strongly to the south via the Commonwealth of Independent States (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States).
  • There are some twenty million Muslims living in today’s Russia and up to another eighty million in Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, largely living under secular authoritarianism.
  • Russia has already lived through a civil war and a bloody insurgency in Chechnya and, perhaps, Dagestan.
Where would al Qaeda go next once it were to triumph in Syria?  With possibly the largest stockpile of chemical weapons in the world? You make the call.  Before doing so, please also ponder the more general question of what motivates nations in the anarchy of international relations.  My guess would be fear and the prospect of aggrandizement. Perhaps we have an inkling of what President Putin’s answer might be: a desire to keep that navy base and a fear of Islamaoists, armed with convenient instruments of mass murder headed his way. 

Since some of the toughest jihadists around come from Chechnya, where might these people look for their next indulgence in blood-drunk blood-sport of stamping out takfiris and combatting the heresy of secular governments, especially one under the possible thrall of those awful orthodox Christians?  So, President Assad’s remaining in power may not be the worst-case scenario in the Russian mind; instead, the great Russian bear may want to defend her cubs far away from home.