This letter will be brief since it is more of a thought-piece than anything else. Additionally, I want to post a sobering passage from a friend of mine in the South. What Andre Smaic went through a few days ago really must give one pause to think.
Here comes the Surge. The ‘surge’ up here in the North is taking shape. Coincidentally, my friends and colleagues from the Georgia National Guard and the German Bundeswehr are “RIPping” out; that is, their relief is in place and my colleagues in uniform are returning to their home bases. On the U.S. side, a new, active duty division is coming into the North, the “Tenth Mountain Division” from New York. The tell-tale signs of impending conflict are readily visible these days:
- the appearance of ‘Apache’ attack helicopters;
- a quadrupling of the troop strength in Kunduz;
- more MRAPs by the day; and,
- the arrival of battle-hardened full-time Army personnel.
A clearing operation is definitely in the works. While the 10th MTN’s mission will also be one of training police, one can safely describe it as “muscular mentoring”.
In defense of the Germans. As the 10th MTN arrives, the word not heard but on everyone’s mind is why the Yanks are coming. Stated bluntly: people believe the Germans have failed and failed miserably in holding this province, once the stronghold in the North for the Taliban. True, security has declined markedly over the past year.
Notwithstanding General McChrystal’s kicking down doors in Berlin for more troops in Afghanistan, however, the Germans have not been cowardly. Theirs has been an approach that seeks to co-opt through co-operation. By cultivating relationships in some of the more troubled areas, the Bundeswehr has worked hard to impress upon ordinary Pashtuns the futility of continued fighting.
Things may not be great under this flawed system, the German reasoning goes, but coming to believe in the possible is less imperfect than continued violence. There are flaws in this rationale, the most evident of which remains that things will change in this country only when Afghans decide change them by overwhelmingly repudiating violence.
But as a senior German diplomat reflected so wisely, "Ned, if you want to change a policy around here, argue with the men. But is want to change the culture
[over the next two generations], start by working with the women." Tragically, however, one easily overlooks the day-by-day courage required to bring recalcitrant combatants to reconciliation.
Obscuring this approach are distortions over the September air-strike that allegedly killed many civilians. There are many elements of this story that do not hang together.
- American soldiers with whom I work, and whom I trust, swear up-&-down that few civilians and very few, if any, children died in that attack.
- The Germans merely reported a targeting opportunity to the ISAF tactical center; it was U.S. jets that actually carried out the attack.
- My State Department colleague has been reporting all along that the closer to the village of the bombing site, the less upset people seem to be; they either have no love lost for those who died (i.e., fellow Pashtuns) or believe that those who died took their chances...and lost.
- Had the Germans not ordered the air-strike and the trucks then were detonated as vehicular bombs at bazaars, killing hundreds, what would the world say then? One can only imagine what the headlines would say if two hijacked NATO trucks incinerated hundreds of innocents and the NATO commander responsible had been in a position to prevent it but failed to act.
- In fairness to Lieutenant Colonel Klein of the Bundeswehr, he did not know the trucks were stuck in the river nor could he foresee the fall-out of his decision. Relying upon incomplete information, he acted decisively to protect his troops and Afghan civilians.
- Most of all, the attack itself occurred at two or three o’clock in the morning. Now, you tell me: what parent lets his or her little ones go running around a fuel truck anytime, let alone in the dark of the night?
This skepticism does not altogether absolve the Germans from all responsibility for the death of so many people. It does, however, make the decision humanly comprehensible. It’s no longer about the Germans and some national flaw but about the limits of reason and intelligence in the middle of so much violence and murky field intelligence.
The bombing, and the press around it, obscures much of what the Germans have tried to do peaceably. That confusion, together with the U.S. looking for a quick victory up North to regenerate battle-field momentum, leads to the widespread and convenient belief that the Germans have failed. The upcoming surge looks like a fairly logical course after the success of the surge in Iraq.
But this reasoning may prove to be fallacious. The Iraqis made the Iraq surge work as Sunnis took up arms against foreign fighters and rejected the violence of militant Islam. These ‘Sons of Iraq’ provided the fundament of community policing – and that ground-level policing, supplemented by 30,000 U.S. troops mainly in Baghdad, turned the tide.
There is little evidence of such a change in allegiances taking place in Afghanistan. The new militias are simply, like the band KISS from the 1970s, a bunch of old mujaheddin painted up to look new. The civil war during the mid-1990s in Afghanistan was as bad – or worse – than the Taliban; the mujaheddin bloodied their hands odiously. General Ahmed Shah Massoud and his Northern Alliance were, by and large, an exception but he stayed up in the Northeast, unable to stem the violence.
This broken analogy with Operation Iraqi Freedom collapses the premise of this kinetic ‘up-tick’ into what may prove to be a fatal fallacy: that a surge in violence will end all violence. Perhaps the peaceful, less dramatic, way of the Germans may prove, in retrospect, to have been the more constructive, less bloody mode.
With the whispers of gossip and history spiralling together, I am increasingly inclined to think that the rush to push the Germans out of the way in the North reflects a desire for an easy victory. Why such a desire? Because things may not be progressing quite so well in the South and East as one might think from the press accounts. At this point, Sergeant Smaic’s story assumes a delayed paramountcy.
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From: "Andrijan Smaic"
Wednesday, March 17, 2010 1:30 PM
I'm okay,
ALCON-
I’m okay, the bombers were killed just ten feet from where I was standing, after a very intense gunfight amid the screaming and shouting; when the gunfight broke out, I took cover into an office. Situational awareness…the people need to get their act together, security around the perimeter is a joke,, towers not manned (the SVBID) came through the tower and back alley.
The vests, 8KG [18 lbs], didn’t explode, pretty well coordinated 2 prong attack. 9 am in the morning. My clothes still smell like gunpowder…got to move to another place for the night.
There is NO military presence here in Lashkar Gah. I’m supposed to head over to Marjeh, our security team will not travel there b/c it’s unsecure…the Marines got hit hard yesterday and again tonight they are getting hit. I have my work cut out for me.
V/r
Andrijan Smaic
Field Coordinator (Marjeh)
Afghanistan Vouchers for Increased Production in Agriculture AVIPA(+) USAID
International Relief and Development, Inc (IRD)
Marjeh, Helmand Province, Afghanistan
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--- On Wed, 3/17/10, Andrijan Smaic wrote:
From: Andrijan Smaic
Subject: Emailing: Suicide Bomber Attack on our building 006 (2)
To: "'Dejan Smaic'"; "'Zoran Smaic'" "'Daniel Smock'; "'David E Bailey'"; "'Kops, Kenneth E. LTC'"; "'Matt Speidel'"; "'aleksandar'"; nedmcd@yahoo.com
Date: Wednesday, March 17, 2010, 4:12 PM
I was able to get to a laptop and send a quick one liner that I am okay
before they even woke up. A few details: All the news agencies reported
some very inaccurate information today: Let me set the record straight.
The suicide bombers were dressed as women to disguise the approach to
the corner of the compound to an unmanned guardtower.
Took off the gerkas, got out of the trolley, placed the ladder
against the wall, climbed into the UNMANNED guard tower, made it to the
ground, as they were inserting their mags into the AK-47, one of the global
guys just so happened to see it, ran back about 50m to their
office...yelling "gooks in the wire!!!" grabbed the long rifle, went back to
the corner wall where he first identified the bombers, engaged and wounded
one, the bomber turned back and went down the back ally with the other bad
guy made it around to our door and were once again engaged.
One of security guys only had a pistol, falling back behind one of the cars
as he was shooting, was grazed in the neck. Bullets going in every direction....
bad guys opened the first door towards him, the second door the same, it
wouldn't open, it's the kind of door that needs to be pushed. With
everything going on, and they were hit many times in the vest (body armor)
under the 8kg of explosives, still didn't go down...they were also pretty
drugged up as well, which is typical. After it was all done, one lost most
of his face...emptying a 30 round mag into the head will do that to a guy,
several times over. I can't give out any more details without saying too
much.
The Police didn't engage at all, the gerka guards did well at their posts.
Improvements will be made to the compound. The bad guys were killed
and couldn't detonate the vests or get rid of the 28 grenades. The VBIED
loaded with explosives never made it to the gate for the others to storm
the compound, they didn't get there in time, timing was off. The bombers
also had earpieces for communication, don't take the Taliban lightly, this
is not Iraq! It's the wild west out here.
That's all i can say for OPSEC reasons, I don't want to give the condition
of our building away, let's just say, lots of bullets into the walls and
windows. Don't under estimate the importance of battle drills!!!! Also,
complacency is a very bad thing. My organization has no leadership.I had to
do some yelling and directing, this is my third day on the ground.it took
over 8 hours to clear the bodies with EOD.
It is a weird feeling to NOT HAVE A GUN. I held onto my cell phone b/c I
needed something to hold onto (didn't have a wpn). Anyhow, I was walking
toward the door when it hit the fan and the glass started to shatter next to
me, and then went into a room for cover, barricaded the door. Know body in
my room panicked.