It is time to listen our country’s leadership and to inform
our respective Representatives and Senators of what we – each one of us –
really believe to be the appropriate course of action with respect to
Syria. My opinion is plain and remains
unchanged, variously categorizing me as smart, stupid or simply self-involved. http://nedmcdletters.blogspot.mx/2013/08/letter-83-thoughts-on-syria-case-for.html
That is not the purpose of this note to my loved ones.
The best note of skepticism I have come across is that
of one politician whom I trust, though his politics differ sharply from mine. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dennis-j-kucinich/syria-war-questions_b_3870763.html The arguments in favor are being presented capably
by Secretary of State Kerry and Secretary of Defense Hagel. http://www.c-span.org/flvPop.aspx?id=10737441229 My interest lies not in those two but in
General Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
This letter, too, is about Syria. But not about Syria
herself. Rather, I want to discuss just why Russia is acting the way she
is. For days, I have scratched my head
in puzzlement as to why Russia is being almost provocative in the face of
terrible depredations, evidently attributable to the régime she supports categorically. This afternoon, when I was composing my weekly
letter to my compañeros in the engineering research center where I serve, I was
thinking about a question several colleagues had posed to me as "their" norteamericano.
That question was why the U.S. government is not listening
at all to the government of Vladimir Putin.
Admittedly, there is far more interest around me in why the National
Security Agency is monitoring the various communications of Presidents Peña-Nieto
and Rousseff, respectively. (My response
being because it is easier to spy than ‘google’, a dumb joke that wrests the requisite
chuckles). Nevertheless, as I tied together
the Syria debate with technology transfer in Mexico (?¿?¿?), President Putin’s
view came into focus.
A basic question – a serious question – about the Syria
discourse remains unaddressed.
Specifically, the reasons I have heard about why President Putin is
acting like a jerk are unconvincing.
- Vladimir likes to “poke America in the eye”. This argument seems weak and does not get any stronger with the re-telling ad nauseam. It is hard to believe that a man who has survived the rough-and-tumble politics of the U.S.S.R. and of Russia would allow his personal feelings to affect his judgement and behavior when the stakes are so high. Poking in the eye is reserved for things like Mr Snowden but to risk a regional war or worse? No, I don’t think so.
- Russia needs a Mediterranean port for her navy to maintain her status as a world power. This thinking, at least as far as the port is concerned, makes more sense. Yet why did President Putin not offer a deal: “Hello, Joe, we will support your meddling in Syria if you guarantee that we retain the right to our base in beautiful downtown Tartous?
- Back in the U.S.S.R. This sentiment tends to link onto the previous idea of naval access to the Mediterranean. It argues that President Putin rues, misses and aims to restore the lost status of a super-power. Nevertheless, setting out the great-power swap would play better into this fantasy as co-equals negotiating the fate of another bastard-child of the Sykes-Picot affair.
- Economics. This argues that dueling pipelines through Turkey versus the Caucusus is driving this pariah status assumed by Russia. Honestly, I know too little to address that question. This trade-off could well be true but I wonder if it would rise to the level of great power confrontation. Additionally, given the harrowing destruction of the one-time jewel of the region, it may be a very long while before any business runs through Syria, except for illegal arms, of course.
So, I went to a second line of thought. In looking at the
Syrian dilemma, I asked myself, “Now, hot-shot, why do you think President
Putin would be so stubborn in his support for an unseemly régime that likely
has used poison gas on its people, especially as refugees swell in number and
dwell in suffering?” Then a thought
crossed my mind. It was one of those
moments I flashed back in time, thirty-three years ago, when I was a senior in
college.
It was Clark Mollenhoff’s class in journalism and
contemporary political issues in the winter semester at Washington and Lee in
early 1980. It had been snowing one of
those damp Blue Ridge snows that made Lexington, Virginia almost celestial in
its small-town splendor. But it made
getting to class a soft-shoe in Hell.
So, I was late, already well on my way to getting the only hook ever
administered by Mr Mollenhoff, a retired, if not retiring, investigative
reporter for the Des Moines Register.
Mr Mollenhoff was a kind man, not least for his grading
students on a pass-fail basis: A = PASS; B = fail. Yet I found a way to a precedent-setting ‘C’. Leave it to me to prove myself so exceptional as to prove
the Mollenhoff grading rule. That day, the contemporary
political theme was the then-recent invasion of Afghanistan by the U.S.S.R. along
with the U.S. response to it (i.e., wheat embargo, Olympics boycott,
etc.). Back then, the widely discussed
reasons for that invasion revolved around a desire for Soviet a deep-water port.
That seemed nutty to me, even then. The idea of
invading a land-locked country to wrest docking rights in Pakistan strained my
wretched little mind into a migraine. So
far-fetched. There were other things
flitting through my mind that day: recent taking of hostages in Iran; the
attack and take-over of the Mecca mosque by extremists; and, other reports of
rising Islamic extremism. The U.S.S.R.
had a large population of Muslims.
So, in class that day, I said that the U.S.S.R. attacked Afghanistan to send a message to its large,
apparently restive Muslim minority: “Hey, if we are willing to take this flak in the
United Nations and around the world by publicly invading this bozo country next door,
imagine what we will do to you who are out of the public eye. Sooo, quiet down…” That idea was laughed out of the room
because, well, I was well on my way to a hanging hook and the idea, admittedly, seemed outlandish.
Since then, I have found out that
senior Soviet foreign policy leaders (supposedly in released Kremlin papers or
interviews; I do not know which one, if either) have stated that the reason I
had cited was one of, of course, several reasons, the simultaneity of which
prompted the follow-trhough of an already-planned invasion. The point I am making is that the Russians
today, sans les Stans, have reason to be anxious with what happens in Syria. So why would President of Russia be one petty
Putin?
- The Russian sphere of influence most definitely still extends strongly to the south via the Commonwealth of Independent States (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States).
- There are some twenty million Muslims living in today’s Russia and up to another eighty million in Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, largely living under secular authoritarianism.
- Russia has already lived through a civil war and a bloody insurgency in Chechnya and, perhaps, Dagestan.
Since some of the toughest jihadists
around come from Chechnya, where might these people look for their next
indulgence in blood-drunk blood-sport of stamping out takfiris and combatting
the heresy of secular governments, especially one under the possible thrall of
those awful orthodox Christians? So,
President Assad’s remaining in power may not be the worst-case scenario in the
Russian mind; instead, the great Russian bear may want to defend her cubs far
away from home.

