“The Electors shall
meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom
one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves. And
they shall make a List of all the Persons voted for, and of the Number of Votes
for each; which List they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the
Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the
Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the Presence of the Senate and
House of Representatives, open all the Certificates, and the Votes shall then
be counted. The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the
President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors
appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an
equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately
chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five highest on the
List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President. But in chusing
the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each
State having one Vote; A quorum for this Purpose shall consist of a Member or
Members from two thirds of the States, and a Majority of all the States shall be necessary to a Choice.
In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the Person having the greatest
Number of Votes of the Electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two
or more who have equal Votes, the Senate shall chuse from them by Ballot the
Vice President.”
--Constitution of the United States of
America:
Article II (Executive), Section 1, Parapgraph 3;
Article II (Executive), Section 1, Parapgraph 3;
as ratified on the 21st of June 1788, as amended the 15th of June 1805
and the 23rd of January 1933.
and the 23rd of January 1933.
BLUF: The Electoral College vote to be taken at the State Capitols on Monday the 19th of December will almost certainly ratify Mr Trump’s election. It would be difficult to justify overturning the constitutional machinery, particularly in favor of Senator / Secretary Clinton.
Scenarios. There are three manners by which this situation will unfold:
Also falling under this scenario would be the case where at least thirty-seven (37) ‘Trump’ Electors abstained and no one else received an Electoral vote. In this theoretical latter case, the final vote would go into the House of Representatives to be balloted state-by-state. Nevertheless, with a decisive thirty to twenty margin of those states with the majority of the Congressional delegation being Republican, Mr Trump would almost certainly still win the the White House.
The second most likely scenario is that a sufficient number of Electors in states where Mr Trump won switch their votes to make the Senator / Secretary the President. Though with only a four (4%) per cent subjective likelihood, this would be the scenario I would view as the base case. The highly unlikely event of the Senator / Secretary being awarded the Presidency would not change the post-election reality too much since Governor Pence would be confirmed in the Electoral College as the Vice President. It would make continuing grid-lock more likely with a Clinton-Pence Administration.
The final, best case scenario remains the least likely at a one per cent (1%) probability, subjectively assigned. That would be enough Electors switching away from Mr Trump to other candidates for the House of Representatives to vote state-by-state to pick from the top five. This scenario would require ample coördination to solidify a Republican alternate to Mr Trump and his Democratic rival who would be able to carry a majority of the states. While my preference – and that of many Republicans – of that alternative would be Governor Bush or Kasich, the House would be under some moral obligation to select a change-minded Republican, probably Governor Pence.
If Governor Pence ascended to the Presidency, the Senate Republican majority would be under pressure also to select another change-oriented Republican (e.g., Governor Walker or Mrs Fiorina) for Vice President. If a Republican other than Governor Pence were selected for the Presidency, the Electoral College ratification of Governor Pence as Vice President would proceed. As I stated, this selection of a change-committed Republican would be a ‘soft’ moral obligation since the American electorate repudiated the establishment candidate, Mrs Clinton, by a margin of four million votes on November 8th.
Conclusion. Mr Trump will be our next President. The positive value of all of this protesting, bickering and, more recently, calling for the Electoral College to exercise the discretion constitutionally vested in it – as well as separate calls for audits to clear Mr Trump of conflicts of interest, particularly with Russia – is to lay the cornerstone of accountability. Call it prudent protest.
The incoming Administration is now on notice that America has the constitutional machinery in place to prevent a usurpation of power or traitorous collusion with a foreign power. Should that machinery break down, we Americans have the natural right to overthrow tyranny. Personally, I believe that Mr Trump will act in good faith; this fear and caution, while understandable and necessary, will prove to be unfounded in subsequent acts or events.
Scenarios. There are three manners by which this situation will unfold:
- ratification of Messrs Trump and Pence as President and Vice President;
- switch-out to Mrs Clinton to inaugurate a Clinton-Pence Administration; or,
- switch-out to another Republican for President and, perhaps, Vice President by moving that determination into the House of Representatives voting state-by-state and, if necessary for selecting the Vice President, into the Senate.
Also falling under this scenario would be the case where at least thirty-seven (37) ‘Trump’ Electors abstained and no one else received an Electoral vote. In this theoretical latter case, the final vote would go into the House of Representatives to be balloted state-by-state. Nevertheless, with a decisive thirty to twenty margin of those states with the majority of the Congressional delegation being Republican, Mr Trump would almost certainly still win the the White House.
The second most likely scenario is that a sufficient number of Electors in states where Mr Trump won switch their votes to make the Senator / Secretary the President. Though with only a four (4%) per cent subjective likelihood, this would be the scenario I would view as the base case. The highly unlikely event of the Senator / Secretary being awarded the Presidency would not change the post-election reality too much since Governor Pence would be confirmed in the Electoral College as the Vice President. It would make continuing grid-lock more likely with a Clinton-Pence Administration.
The final, best case scenario remains the least likely at a one per cent (1%) probability, subjectively assigned. That would be enough Electors switching away from Mr Trump to other candidates for the House of Representatives to vote state-by-state to pick from the top five. This scenario would require ample coördination to solidify a Republican alternate to Mr Trump and his Democratic rival who would be able to carry a majority of the states. While my preference – and that of many Republicans – of that alternative would be Governor Bush or Kasich, the House would be under some moral obligation to select a change-minded Republican, probably Governor Pence.
If Governor Pence ascended to the Presidency, the Senate Republican majority would be under pressure also to select another change-oriented Republican (e.g., Governor Walker or Mrs Fiorina) for Vice President. If a Republican other than Governor Pence were selected for the Presidency, the Electoral College ratification of Governor Pence as Vice President would proceed. As I stated, this selection of a change-committed Republican would be a ‘soft’ moral obligation since the American electorate repudiated the establishment candidate, Mrs Clinton, by a margin of four million votes on November 8th.
Conclusion. Mr Trump will be our next President. The positive value of all of this protesting, bickering and, more recently, calling for the Electoral College to exercise the discretion constitutionally vested in it – as well as separate calls for audits to clear Mr Trump of conflicts of interest, particularly with Russia – is to lay the cornerstone of accountability. Call it prudent protest.
The incoming Administration is now on notice that America has the constitutional machinery in place to prevent a usurpation of power or traitorous collusion with a foreign power. Should that machinery break down, we Americans have the natural right to overthrow tyranny. Personally, I believe that Mr Trump will act in good faith; this fear and caution, while understandable and necessary, will prove to be unfounded in subsequent acts or events.















